Losing an illusion makes you wiser than finding a truth. ~Ludwig Börne
Another review of my data leads me to another post about popular starting hands, big Aces. Different people define “big” differently. I know people that think A-10 or better is a big Ace. I also know people that never saw an Ace they didn’t like. I am not one of those individuals. I think the list of truly big Aces is rather short - A-Ks, A-Ko, A-Qs, and A-Qo - that’s it.
Texas Hold’ Em is a game of domination. One wants to dominate one’s opponent and reduce his chances to win. Playing weak Aces (or Kings, etc.) is a recipe for being dominated by stronger Aces. Thus, we will eschew them while hoping our opponents continue to over play them. Remember, there is a reason why A-K and A-Q (suited or not) are included in the top 20 best starting hands and weaker Aces are not. My own data supports this conclusion. A-K and A-Q (both suited and off suit) are consistent winners but A-Jo and A-10o are not.
I play A-Js and A-10s but not because I think they are big. I play them as suited Aces and I am looking to flop a flush draw or Aces up. They can win as top pair but the pot will not be big because I will be exercising pot control.
The fact of the matter is this, A-J offsuit and other smaller non-suited Aces are not consistent long term winners. Sure, I will probably attempt to steal with them from the Hi Jack, Cut Off, or Button but they are too weak to play from early position with consistent success in full ring NLHE cash games.
Showing posts with label Aces. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aces. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Profiting with Suited Aces
I think many players overvalue and misplay weak suited Aces. They put too much $ in pre-flop and then can’t seem to get away from top pair weak kicker. While I am not a big fan, when considering which sub-premium hands to play, they are playable if you “begin with the end in mind”. What I mean by that is most of the time, you do not want to flop an Ace and have top pair, rag kicker. You are looking to flop a nut flush draw (or better) – period. These hands are somewhat better than suited connectors because if you make your flush, you will know you have the nuts (at least until the board pairs).
I never really considered this type of hand (A-Xs) to be very strong but when I look at my PokerTracker data (80,000 hands), I was somewhat surprised to see suited Aces are the third most profitable group of hands I play. Not surprisingly, Pocket pairs (not just the big ones) are the most profitable group. A-K and A-Q (both suited and offsuit) are the second most profitable group. Third, are the other suited Aces. I consider A-Ks, A-Qs (and A-Js, A-10s somewhat less so) to have value as “2 big cards” in addition to being a suited Ace. However, A-9s to A-2s are playable almost exclusively as suited Aces due to the probability of domination. So, I have been thinking about how to get the most value from them while not placing myself in risky spots where the price isn’t right.
You will flop two (or better yet three) of your suit when holding two suited cards approximately once every eight flops. The only other hands you would want to flop might be Aces up where you pair both of your hole cards (about 49 to 1 or 2%) or one pair and the nut flush draw (giving you 9 outs to the flush, 2 outs to trips, 3 outs to two pair). If you do not flop two (or more) of your suit or Aces up, you may usually check/fold with a clear conscience.
Our goal with this type of hand is to see a flop as cheaply as possible because you need to connect with the flop to continue with confidence.
Therefore, in EP, MP, and LP, I recommend limping A-2s through A-9s.
If someone raises after you limp, only call if you are getting the right pot odds. Then, “fit or fold” on the flop. My rationale here is you want to win a big pot so you do not mind more players taking the flop. You want your implied odds as high as possible –remember, you are hoping to make the nut flush and have an opponent make a weaker hand. If you are in LP, flopped top pair rag kicker, you may be in the lead but don’t get married to the hand. You may lead out (and will often win right there) if checked to but beware a caller or worse, a raiser. You have to think, with an Ace on the flop, what does my opponent have that he wants to call (or raise) my bet with? Often, a better Ace he limped in from EP with. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
I suggest playing A-10s through A-Ks a bit more aggressively.
You can win with these hands just by flopping an Ace, making top pair top kicker by pairing your other card, making Aces up, or the nut flush. I would open bet these hands for 3-4xBB from any position. If raised, I would just call from EP, and re-raise from MP or LP. I will then C-Bet any flop. If I connected with the flop, and my C-Bet gets raised, I will re-raise if I made any of the hands I mentioned above (e.g. TPTK, TPGK, Aces up, or the nut flush draw).
This type of strategy (although admittedly weak-tight) has served me well and might work for you, too. Until next time, good luck at the tables.
I never really considered this type of hand (A-Xs) to be very strong but when I look at my PokerTracker data (80,000 hands), I was somewhat surprised to see suited Aces are the third most profitable group of hands I play. Not surprisingly, Pocket pairs (not just the big ones) are the most profitable group. A-K and A-Q (both suited and offsuit) are the second most profitable group. Third, are the other suited Aces. I consider A-Ks, A-Qs (and A-Js, A-10s somewhat less so) to have value as “2 big cards” in addition to being a suited Ace. However, A-9s to A-2s are playable almost exclusively as suited Aces due to the probability of domination. So, I have been thinking about how to get the most value from them while not placing myself in risky spots where the price isn’t right.
You will flop two (or better yet three) of your suit when holding two suited cards approximately once every eight flops. The only other hands you would want to flop might be Aces up where you pair both of your hole cards (about 49 to 1 or 2%) or one pair and the nut flush draw (giving you 9 outs to the flush, 2 outs to trips, 3 outs to two pair). If you do not flop two (or more) of your suit or Aces up, you may usually check/fold with a clear conscience.
Our goal with this type of hand is to see a flop as cheaply as possible because you need to connect with the flop to continue with confidence.
Therefore, in EP, MP, and LP, I recommend limping A-2s through A-9s.
If someone raises after you limp, only call if you are getting the right pot odds. Then, “fit or fold” on the flop. My rationale here is you want to win a big pot so you do not mind more players taking the flop. You want your implied odds as high as possible –remember, you are hoping to make the nut flush and have an opponent make a weaker hand. If you are in LP, flopped top pair rag kicker, you may be in the lead but don’t get married to the hand. You may lead out (and will often win right there) if checked to but beware a caller or worse, a raiser. You have to think, with an Ace on the flop, what does my opponent have that he wants to call (or raise) my bet with? Often, a better Ace he limped in from EP with. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
I suggest playing A-10s through A-Ks a bit more aggressively.
You can win with these hands just by flopping an Ace, making top pair top kicker by pairing your other card, making Aces up, or the nut flush. I would open bet these hands for 3-4xBB from any position. If raised, I would just call from EP, and re-raise from MP or LP. I will then C-Bet any flop. If I connected with the flop, and my C-Bet gets raised, I will re-raise if I made any of the hands I mentioned above (e.g. TPTK, TPGK, Aces up, or the nut flush draw).
This type of strategy (although admittedly weak-tight) has served me well and might work for you, too. Until next time, good luck at the tables.
Monday, January 28, 2008
How to Play A-K Profitably
A-K (whether suited or not) is a top 10 ranked hand in Texas Hold’em. The odds against getting A-Ko or A-Ks are 82 to 1. No one folds it pre-flop but many people do not seem to know why it is such a powerful hand and what one is supposed to do with it to extract maximum value from it. I have some decent players in my home game and a few prefer to limp in with A-K because they claim it rarely improves.
I do not believe this is the right way to play it unless you are in early position and planning to limp-raise with it. If you limp it, you almost have to hit it to continue after the flop because you have invited every small to middle pair to join you in the pot cheaply. Had you bet or raised pre-flop with A-K you could follow up on a flop that missed you with a continuation bet and have a reasonable chance of winning the pre-cultivated/sweetened pot right there. If you limp, you cannot C- bet with any success. If you limp it in you also invite more players to take the flop with you and that increases the probability that the flop will improve an opponent’s hand. If you are in late position and the pot is limped to you, holding A-K, I suggest a pot sized bet. You will often win the pot uncontested, right there. If not, you have cultivated a decent sized pot to pursue on the flop. I usually want to thin the field to one or two opponents. That (in my opinion) gives me the best chance for my C-bet to work if the flop misses me.
Without improving, A-K is strongest pre-flop and (somewhat less so) on the flop if you follow up with a continuation bet. By the turn and river, if you have not paired (or better) and you are getting action, you do not likely have the best hand. Why would you want to give up so much of A-K’s power by not betting/raising pre-flop? If you do not pair, your hand gets weaker on every street because it becomes more likely your opponent can beat Ace high. Here is a little comparison for you:
A-K vs. weaker Ace = 70% to win
A-K vs. weaker King = 70% to win
A-K vs. unpaired undercards = 60% to win
A-K vs. QQ – 22 = 45% to win
A-K vs. KK or AA = less than 20% to win
Thus, pre-flop you are a favorite against any non-pair, roughly a coin flip against any pair Queens or lower, and only at a significant disadvantage against the best two starting hands in hold’em. Furthermore, if you play A-K like I am recommending, you will also win 100% of the times your opponents fold either pre-flop or on the flop.
When the flop misses you (70%):
If you bet pre-flop as I recommend, even if the flop missed you completely, you must bet again. A three-quarters of the pot to a pot sized bet ought to take it down. If you are called on the flop, try to figure what your opponent is calling with. If you think he has 2nd or bottom pair, another bet may induce a fold. If checked to me on the turn, I will fire a third bet but if I am in early position, I may check the turn. If your opponent is a solid player, has called your bets pre-flop and on the flop, he will probably lead into you on the turn. If so, it is probably time for you to fold.
When the flop hits you (30%):
What you are hoping for (in the ideal case) is for one of your opponents to play a weaker Ace or King against you and then an Ace or King come on the flop. This is where the big hands are won with A-K. People like to play suited Aces (and to a lesser extent suited Kings) and you can trap them. You want a “rainbow” flop with an A or K high and the card values spread out (i.e. A-9-3 or something) to minimize the probability of a straight. If the flop is a rainbow (all different suits meaning no flush possible) and the cards are not coordinated (close in rank) then you are only worried about 2 pair or a flopped set if you have taken my advice and raised pre-flop. After a flop of this sort, your opponent is probably check-calling since he has a pair of Aces or Kings with a weak kicker - so value bet them to death. If he re-raises you, particularly on the turn, you may be up against 2 pair or better. If you are raised on the turn or river by a tight opponent, you are almost certainly beaten so be careful in that case – your opponent is telling you with his bet/raise that he can beat TPTK. I can’t tell you how many times I have called a bet/raise of this sort with my TPTK only to be shown a set.
I hope this helps to de-mystify playing A-K. Good luck at the tables.
I do not believe this is the right way to play it unless you are in early position and planning to limp-raise with it. If you limp it, you almost have to hit it to continue after the flop because you have invited every small to middle pair to join you in the pot cheaply. Had you bet or raised pre-flop with A-K you could follow up on a flop that missed you with a continuation bet and have a reasonable chance of winning the pre-cultivated/sweetened pot right there. If you limp, you cannot C- bet with any success. If you limp it in you also invite more players to take the flop with you and that increases the probability that the flop will improve an opponent’s hand. If you are in late position and the pot is limped to you, holding A-K, I suggest a pot sized bet. You will often win the pot uncontested, right there. If not, you have cultivated a decent sized pot to pursue on the flop. I usually want to thin the field to one or two opponents. That (in my opinion) gives me the best chance for my C-bet to work if the flop misses me.
Without improving, A-K is strongest pre-flop and (somewhat less so) on the flop if you follow up with a continuation bet. By the turn and river, if you have not paired (or better) and you are getting action, you do not likely have the best hand. Why would you want to give up so much of A-K’s power by not betting/raising pre-flop? If you do not pair, your hand gets weaker on every street because it becomes more likely your opponent can beat Ace high. Here is a little comparison for you:
A-K vs. weaker Ace = 70% to win
A-K vs. weaker King = 70% to win
A-K vs. unpaired undercards = 60% to win
A-K vs. QQ – 22 = 45% to win
A-K vs. KK or AA = less than 20% to win
Thus, pre-flop you are a favorite against any non-pair, roughly a coin flip against any pair Queens or lower, and only at a significant disadvantage against the best two starting hands in hold’em. Furthermore, if you play A-K like I am recommending, you will also win 100% of the times your opponents fold either pre-flop or on the flop.
When the flop misses you (70%):
If you bet pre-flop as I recommend, even if the flop missed you completely, you must bet again. A three-quarters of the pot to a pot sized bet ought to take it down. If you are called on the flop, try to figure what your opponent is calling with. If you think he has 2nd or bottom pair, another bet may induce a fold. If checked to me on the turn, I will fire a third bet but if I am in early position, I may check the turn. If your opponent is a solid player, has called your bets pre-flop and on the flop, he will probably lead into you on the turn. If so, it is probably time for you to fold.
When the flop hits you (30%):
What you are hoping for (in the ideal case) is for one of your opponents to play a weaker Ace or King against you and then an Ace or King come on the flop. This is where the big hands are won with A-K. People like to play suited Aces (and to a lesser extent suited Kings) and you can trap them. You want a “rainbow” flop with an A or K high and the card values spread out (i.e. A-9-3 or something) to minimize the probability of a straight. If the flop is a rainbow (all different suits meaning no flush possible) and the cards are not coordinated (close in rank) then you are only worried about 2 pair or a flopped set if you have taken my advice and raised pre-flop. After a flop of this sort, your opponent is probably check-calling since he has a pair of Aces or Kings with a weak kicker - so value bet them to death. If he re-raises you, particularly on the turn, you may be up against 2 pair or better. If you are raised on the turn or river by a tight opponent, you are almost certainly beaten so be careful in that case – your opponent is telling you with his bet/raise that he can beat TPTK. I can’t tell you how many times I have called a bet/raise of this sort with my TPTK only to be shown a set.
I hope this helps to de-mystify playing A-K. Good luck at the tables.
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